Manila condo buy-to-let, taken apart: asking gross 6.18%, achieved gross 4.1–4.8%, net about 2.5–3.5% — against 6.8 years of inventory
Composite-board score: 4.0 · Where it is strong: Net cash flow, Evidence strength · methodology
Manila condos are the most complete lesson in this site's 'gross versus net' series, because two bases exist to be compared: the asking basis (GPG with Lamudi) shows Metro Manila gross at 5.46% and Manila City at 6.18%; the achieved basis (Leechiu) shows primary at 4.1% and secondary at 4.8%. The basis gap alone eats more than a point; standard deductions (association dues, management, vacancy and tax, 1.5–2.0 points) then leave a net of about 2.5–3.5% pre-tax. The backdrop is record inventory: about 78,600 unsold units, vacancy of 24.7% (projected to peak at about 25.6% at end-2026) and roughly 6.8 years of inventory life, with about 13,000 more completions due in 2026. The submarket split is the whole map: the Bay Area above 50% vacant (some asking rents down about 59% in a year) and Alabang down 42%, against Makati CBD/Rockwell/Ortigas below 15% and BGC at about 6–7% — quoting a Manila average yield is meaningless. Foreigners may legally buy condos within a project's 40% quota (the only lawful residential form), but the quota also caps the exit: once a project is at 40%, your buyer pool contains no foreigners. Rated below the bar as an explainer: the REIT on the same page (entry No. 64) pays about 7% gross with zero friction and daily exit — for a condo to win the arithmetic it needs a deep-discount core-CBD secondary case, and this site does not pretend it can source those continuously for readers.
In short: four lines first
Mid-market condos of P2.5–7.0M dominate the unsold stock
4.1–6.18%（Metro Manila condo gross rental yields (two bases: asking vs achieved)）
Medium burden (management can be outsourced; building governance and re-letting remain yours)
Inventory's self-fulfilment: about 78,600 unsold units plus developer spot discounts (up to 60% reported on some ready stock) weld a ceiling onto secondary prices — if the denominator (your purchase price) follows asking prices, numerator and denominator are both inflated.
The numbers that matter
Why we think it makes money
The two-basis comparison is rare teaching material: in a market where asking and achieved data coexist, the first question about any yield is 'which basis are you quoting?' — with both printed side by side here, readers will ask that sentence in every other market too.
The submarket map is Manila's only truth: vacancy above 50% and at 6% inside one city — any Manila property conclusion without a submarket attached (including most marketing) is void on arrival.
The 40% quota's exit mechanics deserve their own study: the quota is simultaneously the foreigner's entry ticket and exit ceiling — liquidity must be priced at purchase as 'sellable to locals, or to foreigners only while quota remains'.
How to actually get in
- The lawful form (stated, not a route offered): buy a condominium unit while the project's foreign share is below 40% and let it long-term; in practice only deep-discount secondary cases in Makati CBD/BGC/Ortigas qualify, each with a local lawyer verifying quota headroom and building condition. This page offers no bulk or pre-selling route (developer spot-cash discounting on ready units is itself pressing down on secondary prices).
What it costs, what it earns
Entry amount: Mid-market condos of P2.5–7.0M dominate the unsold stock
How much work for you: Medium burden (management can be outsourced; building governance and re-letting remain yours)
- Association dues and special assessments: in an inventory-glut market, ageing towers' maintenance apportionment is the net yield's largest variance item.
- Vacancy and re-letting: at 24.7% market vacancy, vacancy allowances must be provisioned on submarket reality (in the Bay Area, assume the unit sits empty half the time).
Basis: this site uses full-cost net returns only — income minus vacancy, management, maintenance, taxes and insurance, then financing interest, with entry costs in the denominator. See the methodology。
Identity & tax
Status (residency / citizenship)
This asset does not count toward the channel Residency channel
Threshold: 定存 US$15,000–50,000（按年龄与养老金分档）
SRRV 自 2025-09-01 重构：只剩 Classic 与 Courtesy 两类，年龄下限降至 40 岁，须移民局清关。Classic 定存（存 PRA 认可银行）：50+ 有养老金（≥US$800/月）US$15,000、无养老金 US$30,000；40–49 岁有养老金 US$25,000、无 US$50,000。注意：定存是「押着的存款」不是投资回报，且 PDIC 保险只保 ₱1,000,000，较高档位部分无保险。SIRV（投资居留）须 US$75,000 投入合资格投资——公寓、批发与零售明确不合格，钱指不到房产上。本站的 REIT 条目不构成任何签证投资。SRRV 的身份枢纽页将单独评估（本条仅作国别注记）。
Source: 菲律宾退休管理局（PRA）
Tax (investor level)
REIT 须分派 ≥90% 可分配收入（RA 9856 §7）；投资者层居民 10% 最终税，非居民回到 NIRC 预扣（个人/公司均 25%，协定减免为例外）——本站只印毛收益率与预扣机制，指示性到手为推导值。
- 土地：宪法禁止外国人持有土地（公司须菲方 ≥60%）；公寓按 RA 4726 项目内外国份额 ≤40%；租赁 RA 12252（2025）将合资格外国投资者的土地租期上限提至 99 年——仅限已批准登记的投资项目，不是普遍权利。
- CREATE MORE 激励经 FIRB 与投资促进机构（BOI/PEZA）管理；PEZA 认证同时是马尼拉写字楼需求与 99 年租期的入口之一。
Double-tax treaties: 新加坡—菲律宾税收协定存在，但其对 REIT 分派的具体适用口径各来源表述不一：本站在逐案确认前只给指示性推导区间，不给单一到手定数。
Source: RA 9856；NIRC；参议院/众议院法律文本
This section is general information only — not immigration or tax advice. Program rules change frequently; before acting, rely on the official texts and a licensed adviser.
Risks: what could go wrong
What we have not verified yet
The following key figures have not yet been verified; the reason is noted for each item.
- Achieved rents by submarket: Leechiu's submarket asking-rent moves are directional (sample composition affects magnitudes); net yields are verified tower by tower against actual leases.
- Each project's live 40% quota headroom follows the developer's or administrator's register, checked by a lawyer before signing.
FAQ
- Why is the Bay Area above 50% vacant while BGC sits at 6%?
- The Bay Area is the epicentre of the POGO (offshore gaming) retreat: supply built for gaming workers' budgets emptied when that demand left overnight; BGC and Makati run on real corporate and executive demand. Manila is not one market but several unconnected markets sharing a name — which is also this site's standing attitude to every 'city average yield'.
- Net yields near 3% — why does anyone buy?
- Three real reasons: own-use combined with letting, a local-currency holder's inflation hedge, and a bet on price recovery after the inventory clears. All three are price or use logics, not cash-flow logics. This site's cash-flow board does not admit them, but it prints the arithmetic clearly so readers can decide on their true reasons — buying the right thing with the wrong ruler still leads to selling it at the wrong time.
- Pre-selling is cheaper — is it not the better entry?
- Pre-selling discounts are one of the inventory problem's causes: today's pre-sale is 2028's inventory. In a market with 6.8 years of inventory life, pre-selling buys developer credit plus future supply; this site's attitude matches its rule for the UK car parks' historical deals — a price without delivery and transaction verification is only an asking price.
Related opportunities
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